Major League Baseball - Page 13

Lomax · 05-31-2007, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimorrison

And Lomax, I can guarantee that A-Rod could not get $25 million a year in a new contract.

... I just can't take you seriously until you learn a few things. You just don't see reality I guess. Oh well, maybe after you do some research,.. you'll understand.
You guarantee? Hahaha! Not a good idea.

Anyways,.. A Rod "should" opt out. There is a better payout, and team awaiting him somewhere else.

jimorrison · 06-01-2007, 08:19 AM

I'm basing my assertion entirely on my understanding of economics and the baseball market in the past few years.

As of right now, A-Rod is worth more than $25 million per year on the open market. If A-Rod wanted to opt out and sign, say, a 4 year deal, he could get around $25 million per year, or perhaps even more. He would finish such a deal in 2011 at age 36, presumably still at the top of his game.

However, in the interest of long-term financial security, A-Rod (and his shrewd agent Scott Boras) will probably use these 4 years of virtually guaranteed superstardom to leverage for another few years on the contract - perhaps a 7 or 8 year deal instead of 4.

If he wants an 8 year deal though, he's going to finish it when he's 40, and he's not likely to be worth $25 million when he's 40. There's also an added risk with longer deals of a permanent injury that curtails a player's abilities. So basically a team offering him a 7 or 8 year deal will get a volume discount, and probably only have to pay $20 or $21 million per year on average.

And so when I say that I guarantee A-Rod won't get $25 million a year, I'm saying it because I am pretty sure he and Scott Boras are going to push for a longer-term deal - otherwise there wasn't too much point in opting out.

Also, keep in mind that the Yankees would be unlikely to bid for his services, which takes a major player out of the demand side of the equation. Back in 2001, it was mainly the Yankees' interest in A-Rod that drove his price up to what Texas eventually offered. (The Mets, another of the big-market teams, would have no interest in A-Rod either with David Wright on the hot corner)

Hopefully you can see that I do know what I'm talking about. In the event that no team is willing to risk a 7 or 8 year deal on A-Rod (and I think someone will), he could get something on the order of $27 million/year for 5 years.

But my main point was that he's not looking at a significant pay raise in the short term if he opts out. He would be doing it to get out of NY, and more importantly to use the leverage he has with his current health and productivity to get himself a high salary for his late-30s years.

bsm1967 · 06-01-2007, 08:21 AM

Another trouncing of the Tigers last night and a 3 1/2 game lead in the AL Central. Pronk is getting back to his best and CC is now tied for most MLB wins with 8 - GO TRIBE

manlai · 06-01-2007, 08:22 AM

standings are depressing...

jimorrison · 06-01-2007, 08:26 AM

I posted yesterday that with Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle on the mound, tonight's game should take about 2 hours.

I was wrong. It took 1 hr 50 min! And that included a pause of several minutes due to an injury to Darrin Erstad, who blew out his ankle on an awkward swing of the bat (which shows just how nasty Halladay's curveball is).

Great game though - a real pitcher's duel. Halladay threw 7 shutout innings, and could have gone the distance but John Gibbons used caution since he is in his first start back from an appendectomy.

Mark Buehrle threw the complete game and allowed only 2 hits - but both were homeruns, and that was the difference! Neither starting pitcher walked a single batter, which is an incredible feat in the American League.

Halladay showed how great he is in the 3rd inning. The White Sox got runners to 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, and Halladay escaped unscathed! A grounder leading to an out at the plate, followed by a runner caught stealing, followed by another grounder, and he was out of the jam.

It was the best-pitched game I've been to since I saw Chris Carpenter throw a one-hitter two years ago here in Toronto against his old team.

celtsoxx · 06-01-2007, 08:32 AM

My Red Sox are looking good, even more so after taking 2 of 3 from the tribe (two best teams in the AL INMO) hope we can bury NY this week end.

I'm glad to see Boston doing so well after a such a crappy 2006 (though we were pretty damn good until we suffered injuries to just about the whole team).

It's somewhat interesting to me that both the Indians and Sox are doing so well after very off seasons in 06. Though it should come as no suprise that the Indians are better since they had a much better pythag in 06 than in 07. In Boston's case it looks like healthy has made all the difference.

celtsoxx · 06-01-2007, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimorrison

I posted yesterday that with Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle on the mound, tonight's game should take about 2 hours.

I was wrong. It took 1 hr 50 min! And that included a pause of several minutes due to an injury to Darrin Erstad, who blew out his ankle on an awkward swing of the bat (which shows just how nasty Halladay's curveball is).

Great game though - a real pitcher's duel. Halladay threw 7 shutout innings, and could have gone the distance but John Gibbons used caution since he is in his first start back from an appendectomy.

Mark Buehrle threw the complete game and allowed only 2 hits - but both were homeruns, and that was the difference! Neither starting pitcher walked a single batter, which is an incredible feat in the American League.

Halladay showed how great he is in the 3rd inning. The White Sox got runners to 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, and Halladay escaped unscathed! A grounder leading to an out at the plate, followed by a runner caught stealing, followed by another grounder, and he was out of the jam.

It was the best-pitched game I've been to since I saw Chris Carpenter throw a one-hitter two years ago here in Toronto against his old team.

Good to see Buehrle bouncing back after an off 06, he's been one of the more solid starting pitchers in the AL over the past 5 seasons. I think the work load of the years past caused dead arm last season and thus caused the regression.

Lomax · 06-01-2007, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimorrison

And Lomax, I can guarantee that A-Rod could not get $25 million a year in a new contract.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimorrison

As of right now, A-Rod is worth more than $25 million per year on the open market. If A-Rod wanted to opt out and sign, say, a 4 year deal, he could get around $25 million per year, or perhaps even more. He would finish such a deal in 2011 at age 36, presumably still at the top of his game.

You guarantee he can't, then say he can.

I know how the market works, and we have no idea what he could get in a long term deal. He got $25 mil a year quite awhile back. It isn't such a big deal now. People pay. Not much more to say about it. You said enough above. Wait and see is all.

nateratm · 06-01-2007, 08:51 AM

I've been a lifelong Dodger fan, and I like their chances this year. Solid pitching, and above average bats. All we need is to make a trade for a power bat in the middle of the lineup, and we can take down the Mets to get to the World Series.

celtsoxx · 06-01-2007, 08:52 AM

got to remember in regards to the A-Rod contract, this is baseball... guaranteed money is a lot more important than AAS. I don't think he'll opt out, but I could see him getting 9 years at 20 million.

benefit · 06-01-2007, 01:57 PM

boy i miss baseball -- i already have tix to see my cubbies when i return to the US after one year overseas

absynth · 06-01-2007, 02:32 PM

A-Rod is a bush league bitch with the cheap tactics that he pulls. He is much too gifted of a player to stoop to slapping balls out of gloves, throwing elbows on slides, or yelling "mine" to distract infielders on pop-ups. Yet he does it and will continue. Can't wait for him to choke in October... if they even get there.

Archimedes&Wart · 06-01-2007, 02:35 PM

If A-Rod wasn't a gazzillionaire, no one would care. Anyone who's ever played at any level knows that that sort of thing happens all the time. He made a rookie look like a .... rookie.

Good stuff.

Archimedes&Wart · 06-01-2007, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by celtsoxx

got to remember in regards to the A-Rod contract, this is baseball... guaranteed money is a lot more important than AAS. I don't think he'll opt out, but I could see him getting 9 years at 20 million.

Prediction:

Yankees extend his contract for whatever he wants, as the Texas Rangers are still paying $10M per year through the end of his current contract.

A-Rod will want to prove he can play in NY....

"If you can make it here, you'll make it anywhere...."

Archimedes&Wart · 06-01-2007, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by celtsoxx

My Red Sox are looking good, even more so after taking 2 of 3 from the tribe (two best teams in the AL INMO) hope we can bury NY this week end.

I'm glad to see Boston doing so well after a such a crappy 2006 (though we were pretty damn good until we suffered injuries to just about the whole team).

It's somewhat interesting to me that both the Indians and Sox are doing so well after very off seasons in 06. Though it should come as no suprise that the Indians are better since they had a much better pythag in 06 than in 07. In Boston's case it looks like healthy has made all the difference.

Gotta "love" those Sawks fans... "we"... please.... you are not "we"... and don't think for a second that the slugs who own the Sawks give two shits about the fans, any more than they did about the ones in all the other cities they've burned through.

06-01-2007, 08:19 AM	#182
jimorrison micro waster Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 26 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Lomax, let me explain I'm basing my assertion entirely on my understanding of economics and the baseball market in the past few years. As of right now, A-Rod is worth more than $25 million per year on the open market. If A-Rod wanted to opt out and sign, say, a 4 year deal, he could get around $25 million per year, or perhaps even more. He would finish such a deal in 2011 at age 36, presumably still at the top of his game. However, in the interest of long-term financial security, A-Rod (and his shrewd agent Scott Boras) will probably use these 4 years of virtually guaranteed superstardom to leverage for another few years on the contract - perhaps a 7 or 8 year deal instead of 4. If he wants an 8 year deal though, he's going to finish it when he's 40, and he's not likely to be worth $25 million when he's 40. There's also an added risk with longer deals of a permanent injury that curtails a player's abilities. So basically a team offering him a 7 or 8 year deal will get a volume discount, and probably only have to pay $20 or $21 million per year on average. And so when I say that I guarantee A-Rod won't get $25 million a year, I'm saying it because I am pretty sure he and Scott Boras are going to push for a longer-term deal - otherwise there wasn't too much point in opting out. Also, keep in mind that the Yankees would be unlikely to bid for his services, which takes a major player out of the demand side of the equation. Back in 2001, it was mainly the Yankees' interest in A-Rod that drove his price up to what Texas eventually offered. (The Mets, another of the big-market teams, would have no interest in A-Rod either with David Wright on the hot corner) Hopefully you can see that I do know what I'm talking about. In the event that no team is willing to risk a 7 or 8 year deal on A-Rod (and I think someone will), he could get something on the order of $27 million/year for 5 years. But my main point was that he's not looking at a significant pay raise in the short term if he opts out. He would be doing it to get out of NY, and more importantly to use the leverage he has with his current health and productivity to get himself a high salary for his late-30s years. __________________ Before I sink into the big sleep, I want to hear the scream of the butterfly - Jim Morrison (from the song When the Music's Over)

06-01-2007, 08:21 AM	#183
bsm1967 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Guinnessland Posts: 4,636 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Another trouncing of the Tigers last night and a 3 1/2 game lead in the AL Central. Pronk is getting back to his best and CC is now tied for most MLB wins with 8 - GO TRIBE __________________ a GoofyZ sig

06-01-2007, 08:26 AM	#185
jimorrison micro waster Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 26 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Jays/Sox I posted yesterday that with Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle on the mound, tonight's game should take about 2 hours. I was wrong. It took 1 hr 50 min! And that included a pause of several minutes due to an injury to Darrin Erstad, who blew out his ankle on an awkward swing of the bat (which shows just how nasty Halladay's curveball is). Great game though - a real pitcher's duel. Halladay threw 7 shutout innings, and could have gone the distance but John Gibbons used caution since he is in his first start back from an appendectomy. Mark Buehrle threw the complete game and allowed only 2 hits - but both were homeruns, and that was the difference! Neither starting pitcher walked a single batter, which is an incredible feat in the American League. Halladay showed how great he is in the 3rd inning. The White Sox got runners to 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, and Halladay escaped unscathed! A grounder leading to an out at the plate, followed by a runner caught stealing, followed by another grounder, and he was out of the jam. It was the best-pitched game I've been to since I saw Chris Carpenter throw a one-hitter two years ago here in Toronto against his old team. __________________ Before I sink into the big sleep, I want to hear the scream of the butterfly - Jim Morrison (from the song When the Music's Over)

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06-01-2007, 08:22 AM	#184
manlai Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	standings are depressing...

06-01-2007, 08:32 AM	#186
celtsoxx micro waster Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 45 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	My Red Sox are looking good, even more so after taking 2 of 3 from the tribe (two best teams in the AL INMO) hope we can bury NY this week end. I'm glad to see Boston doing so well after a such a crappy 2006 (though we were pretty damn good until we suffered injuries to just about the whole team). It's somewhat interesting to me that both the Indians and Sox are doing so well after very off seasons in 06. Though it should come as no suprise that the Indians are better since they had a much better pythag in 06 than in 07. In Boston's case it looks like healthy has made all the difference.

06-01-2007, 08:51 AM	#189
nateratm Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 205 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	I've been a lifelong Dodger fan, and I like their chances this year. Solid pitching, and above average bats. All we need is to make a trade for a power bat in the middle of the lineup, and we can take down the Mets to get to the World Series.

06-01-2007, 08:52 AM	#190
celtsoxx micro waster Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 45 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	got to remember in regards to the A-Rod contract, this is baseball... guaranteed money is a lot more important than AAS. I don't think he'll opt out, but I could see him getting 9 years at 20 million.

06-01-2007, 01:57 PM	#191
benefit micro waster Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 48 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	boy i miss baseball -- i already have tix to see my cubbies when i return to the US after one year overseas

06-01-2007, 02:32 PM	#192
absynth micro waster Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 49 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	A-Rod is a bush league bitch with the cheap tactics that he pulls. He is much too gifted of a player to stoop to slapping balls out of gloves, throwing elbows on slides, or yelling "mine" to distract infielders on pop-ups. Yet he does it and will continue. Can't wait for him to choke in October... if they even get there.

06-01-2007, 02:35 PM	#193
Archimedes&Wart micro waster Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 40 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	If A-Rod wasn't a gazzillionaire, no one would care. Anyone who's ever played at any level knows that that sort of thing happens all the time. He made a rookie look like a .... rookie. Good stuff.