The Bear is back: Russia is an enemy again

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by Nemowork

Not strictly speaking true, the Russians were holding exercises with the Indians recently so they still had a lot of forces in place, if you check out the actual numbers of forces and men the Russians have used theyre actually a very small force.

I see columns of tanks . . . columns of tanks mean a huge logistical tail. You can't operate armor in unfriendly territory without the means to refuel, repair and so on.

Moreover, the Georgian Army is said to be good . . . do you think that the Russians would invade with a small force? I don't. Unlike Cheney-Rumsfeld, the Russians believe in overwhelming force, all the time. Their military is also not at all flexible. . . people don't have a lot of initiative at the local level.

For them to shift over from a local defensive to the invasion of another country in 24 hours is not something that I believe they could do without a lot of planning.

[Nemowork]

Even the Georgian figures have never put the initial Russian force at higher then 6000 infantry man and 150 armoured vehicles including APC's and artillery (rising to 500 tanks and overwhelming artillery now) against Georgia's 180 tanks and 20-28,000 regulars, the Russians have been relying on massive air superiority to destroy the Georgian forces and communications.

Its practically a western strategy, the Georgians are in such chaos they cant even tell what their forces are doing. They're making diplomatic statements about fighting in areas they lost days ago, peace treaties when theyre attacking, Russian forces in places they've withdrawn from without a fight and so on.

[Harpoon]

So is anybody else going to get pulled into this?

[Lee Is Bob]

Russians getting very bad media coverage at the moment. they had a pact with South Ossetia that if Georgia invaded they would help out.
Didnt UK have similar pact with Belgium in 1914 and Poland in 1939?

[treesmoke]

blah

[Nemowork]

PS, yes the Georgians are good, the US and Israel have been in the country training them extensively in using small mobile NATO style forces and counter-insurgency operations.

What they arent good for or trained in is fighting a foreign army, and do not believe the Russians are doctrine led robots, the Soviet era were after the 60's and especially the conscript units but they have used a lot of fully professional paratroop and Chechnyan special forces units who are good by any standards.

[Harpoon]

There are so many countries and factions in Europe it really is confusing keeping it all straight and tied in together...

[treesmoke]

The only major NATO country that can do anything to support the Georgians in that region is Turkey. What is there relationship with the Georgians and Russians, think they might try to help.

Or how about the Kurds, are the Russians on the list of enemies?

[Nemowork]

Originally Posted by Harpoon

So is anybody else going to get pulled into this?

Dunno, the Russians requested a special meeting of the UN on sunday, its due to happen tomorrow so what comes up from that is anybodies guess.

The western/NATO is trying for some sort of resolution at the UN (since it has to be approved by members like China and Russia thats not going to be up to much) and the US diplomatic effort to really lay into Russia (as per GWs speech) has been shot down and the US caucasus diplomat has basically been told to shut up and stand in a corner while Condi Rice refuses to come back off holiday and be associated with all the FUBAR.

Armenia might be coming in more strongly on the Russian side, Azherbaijan, the other notable ally of the Georgians is noticing they have a Russian enclave in their territory (Nagorno-Karabakh) and refusing to answer the phones to anybody so unless Ukraine or Turkey does something stupid its staying local.

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by Nemowork

Even the Georgian figures have never put the initial Russian force at higher then 6000 infantry man and 150 armoured vehicles including APC's and artillery (rising to 500 tanks and overwhelming artillery now) against Georgia's 180 tanks and 20-28,000 regulars, the Russians have been relying on massive air superiority to destroy the Georgian forces and communications.

Doesn't make sense. The Georgian claim that I've seen is 20,000 Russian troops and 500 tanks. There's no real way to know. The Georgians themselves probably don't know.

But the rule of thumb is that you don't attack without a 3 to 1 advantage. This is tough terrain, the Georgians have combat experience from Iraq, and good weaponry.

Putin understands power, and -- again, knowing no facts-- he wouldn't go on the offensive with a token force of "whoever happened to be there". That's not Russian Army doctrine, and in this terrain, it would be militarily crazy. The Russians are now apparently in Gori ("A" on the map), having cut Georgia's main highway. . . if this is an improvised ad hoc reponse, then its nothing like the way the Russian Army has operated. Their jumping off point seems to be Vladikkavkaz, where Putin visited two days ago.

You don't put your Army on the other side of a mountain range in 24 hours as an impulse

[Nemowork]

Thats what im saying, theyr up to 20,000 now (against 20,000+ Georgian regulars, 20,000 first rate reservists and 80,000 second rate) but their initial response was with advance elements of the 58th army, 6,000 men reinforced the next day by the 76th VDV (airborne) and the day after by Chechen Vostok special forces, Spetznaz and the 70th VDV coming in now..


The Russians arent in Gori, the Georgian government are reporting it and everybodies repeating the claim, the Reuters reporter broadcasting from the town says its been abandonned by the Georgians but no Russians are there. They had a bit of a poke around with scout troops yesterday but now its empty and harmless they left it alone.

The trouble is everybody uses the same equipment (T72. BTR80) so a lot of what the Georgian government has been reporting as a Russian attack is their own forces being recalled to protect Tbilisi.

Russian forces have started wearing white armbands and tying white scarves on their gunbarrels to prevent friendly fire its getting that bad!

[dizigner]

This is the Beginning of Third World War

[treesmoke]

You guys are making it sound like the Georgian army might be working independent of the over all government and maybe the generals?

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by Nemowork

Thats what im saying, theyr up to 20,000 now (against 20,000+ Georgian regulars, 20,000 first rate reservists and 80,000 second rate) but their initial response was with advance elements of the 58th army, 6,000 men reinforced the next day by the 76th VDV (airborne) and the day after by Chechen Vostok special forces, Spetznaz and the 70th VDV coming in now..

So the Russians launched an attack with 6000 men, across a mountain range, against an Army of 120,000? And undertook an aviation campaign on 24 hours basis? Where do the aircrews get their targets from? Its not as though they've operated over Georgia before.

The idea that this is "spontaneous" seems pretty implausible. It quite closely resembles the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

[TheLancinator]

Originally Posted by deepsepia

So the Russians launched an attack with 6000 men, across a mountain range, against an Army of 120,000?

And has the Georgians in full retreat...